No, the major bull run everyone was expecting hasn’t fully happened yet — in fact, the crypto market (especially Bitcoin) is currently in a significant downturn as of February 2026.
Here’s the current picture based on recent market data and analysis:
Bitcoin peaked in October 2025 around $126,000 (all-time high for that cycle).
It has since dropped sharply — roughly 45-50% from that peak.
As of mid-February 2026 (around February 11), Bitcoin is trading in the $66,000–$69,000 range (with recent lows dipping toward $60,000–$67,000 in some reports).
The broader crypto market has followed suit, with many assets down substantially year-to-date.
Many people anticipated a strong continuation or new leg up into 2026 (fueled by institutional adoption, ETF flows, pro-crypto policies, etc.), but instead we’ve seen the opposite: heavy selling pressure, liquidations, ETF outflows in some periods, and a shift toward “extreme fear” sentiment.
What analysts and market voices are saying right now
Some describe this as the end of the 2024–2025 bull cycle (post-2024 halving rally), with the sharp correction marking the transition into a cooling/distribution phase or even early “crypto winter” vibes.
Others argue the real parabolic bull run could still be ahead in 2026 (mid-to-late), especially if historical post-halving patterns hold (biggest gains often come 12–18+ months after the halving).
Prominent voices (e.g., Galaxy’s Mike Novogratz) suggest the “age of speculation” may be ending, with more mature, institutional-dominated price action replacing retail-driven moonshots.
A few optimistic takes still point to 2026 as potentially explosive if catalysts like clearer regulation, renewed inflows, or macro shifts align.
Bottom line
The explosive bull run phase of 2025 has already occurred and ended (with the peak behind us). Right now (early 2026), we’re in a bearish correction / consolidation phase rather than an active bull market.
Whether this turns into a deeper bear market or sets up for another strong leg higher later in 2026 is still very much debated — crypto cycles are never perfectly predictable. Many long-term bulls remain hopeful for a resurgence this year, but the momentum has clearly shifted downward for now.